OPEC+ countries may again postpone the increase in oil production, which is still scheduled for April this year. Experts interviewed by Rossiyskaya Gazeta believe that this decision may be prompted by a decline in barrel prices due to a drop in demand for oil.

The latest forecast from OPEC on the oil market with the preservation of guidelines for fuel demand and the results of the last ministerial meeting on February 3 indicate that the alliance has taken a wait-and-see attitude, assessing the potential consequences of the aggressive trade policy of U.S. President Donald Trump, said stock market analyst Alina Poptsova of Alfa Capital Management Company.

In her opinion, another postponement of the start of the rollback of voluntary cuts is not ruled out.

The introduction of broad duties by the U.S. and mirror measures in response to them from China, Canada and Mexico create the risk of slowing global economic growth, which is negative for oil quotes (prices will be laid in the risk of lower demand).

As noted by Daniel Tyun, senior analyst of the closed venture club “Digital Finance”, OPEC+ has not yet announced the adjustment of plans and is going to start a gradual increase in oil production from April 2025, coming out of voluntary cuts. But this decision is not final and will depend on market conditions. The organization has already postponed the start of production increase several times, so further delays cannot be ruled out. According to the OPEC decision, the actual production quotas, excluding voluntary cuts, will be 39.725 million barrels per day for 2025 and 2026.

But in addition to the new U.S. president's economic policies, imposing barrier duties on goods from some countries and their retaliatory measures, there are his verbal interventions - calls to increase oil production to both U.S. oil producers and Middle Eastern OPEC countries.

According to Thune, pressure from President Trump could influence OPEC+ decisions. 

He urged OPEC to lower oil prices to put pressure on Russia over the war in Ukraine. OPEC+ will have to balance the need to maintain market stability with geopolitical interests and pressure from individual countries such as the United States, the expert said.

At the same time, oil prices are still at a level close to uncomfortable for the majority of OPEC+ countries (about $74-75 per barrel of Brent), with a tendency to further decline. And this undoubtedly plays against the plans to increase oil production.

Poptsova does not expect OPEC+ to make additional production cuts under these conditions. OPEC+'s share in the global oil market is already shrinking due to increased supply from other countries outside the cartel. And at current prices, production cuts are not in the budgetary interests of oil producers, she said.

From Tyun's point of view, OPEC+ may further cut oil production this spring if market conditions warrant it. This could happen if demand for oil is lower than expected or if supply exceeds demand, leading to a glut of oil on the market. According to Argus estimates, OPEC+ members, which are subject to the targets, reduced crude oil production by 1.66 million barrels per day to 33.96 million barrels per day in 2024, the expert said.

Author: Sergey Tikhonov